Global Forecasting Strategy for Rare Immunodeficiency Launch

The Challenge

A global pharmaceutical client with a strong Immunology portfolio planned to launch a new treatment for adults with an ultra-rare immunodeficiency disease. The client’s commercial excellence team required a robust, patient-based forecasting model to accurately estimate market potential, identify the treatable patient population, and project revenue. Key requirements included building an automated events calculation engine to assess the impact of both new and existing products, incorporating flexible scenarios to account for potential delays in product launch timelines, considering possible extensions of the Loss of Exclusivity (LOE), and automating the conversion of annual revenue estimates into monthly projections across multiple global geographies.

ProcDNA's Solution

Geography-Specific Assumptions

Established a comprehensive list of assumption parameters tailored to geography-specific regulatory and clinical guidelines.

In-Depth Market Research

Conducted detailed research on regional nuances, including incidence and prevalence rates, Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) timelines, Gross-to-Net (GTN) discounts, parallel trade practices, and more.

Rare Disease Market Dynamics

Incorporated critical forecasting elements such as diagnosis rates, percentage of population treated, market share and access, adoption curves, patient adherence, and symptom severity — all essential for rare disease forecasting.

Integrated Events and Scenario Modeling

Built Excel-based forecasting tools with integrated event and scenario modeling capabilities to assess the impact of various business changes, and collaborated closely with the client to finalize assumptions and parameters.

Impact

Enhanced Operational Planning

Forecasted revenue and unit estimates supported the client in effective life cycle management and manufacturing planning.

Data-Driven Launch Strategy

The ex-US revenue forecast enabled the client to make informed decisions on prioritizing geographies for optimal product launch.

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